In 2002 Australia's total net immigration was the second highest it has ever been.  House (land) prices were going through the roof.

The 'Business as usual' figure in the Victorian Government document http://www.population.org.au/pressrm/newslet/nl200106.pdf.  projects Melbourne's population growth at 1.056, which would take us to 4,188,600 people in 2030.

Some old projections to show you how the fence posts keep moving:

AUSTRALIA'S POPULATION HIT 19 MILLION ON 18TH AUGUST 1999

 Like world population hitting 6 Billion & India's hitting 1 billion, the media publicity that ABS is generating re Australia's 19 million compels any thinking person to ask questions about our current population direction.

This is our second fastest million, ever ... second only to the jump from 16 to 17 million between 86 and 90, i.e. the high growth years of the early Hawke era.

You'll want to look at the issue of our current net overseas migration levels - nearly 130,000 (127,400) for y/e 31 Dec 1998, according to ABS' quarterly report released in June 1999, which is the highest rate for 10 years - and whether the ABS/Hockey statements about where we're heading reflect that reality.

Note that Hockey speaks (see below) of a projection which assumes that 'migration levels remain steady'.

But 'steady' at WHAT - nearly 130,000 per year net?? Or the much lower levels - 60,000 or 70,000 - which Immigration Minister Ruddock has been saying net overseas migration will average out at?

There's an important graph from the Government Website: Click here

For those of you wanting to know the assumptions on which this population projection graph is based, you'll see that Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) says it is the SERIES K projection in the ABS 'Population Projections 1997 to 2051'.

Here are the assumptions of Series K on page 46 in that report:

* total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.60 children per woman (The fertility rate at the moment is about 1.74)
* annual net overseas migration of 90,000 (At the moment it is almost 130,000).
So it's based on a total fertility rate (TFR) dropping quickly to a level that is 8% lower than today, & is based on a Net Overseas Migration (NOM) figure 30% lower than today's.

TFR could well fall at bit, although it is doubtful that it will fall below 1.65 for some decades if at all - not without the Government making contraception free to all Aussies to get unintended pregnancies down.

But how on Earth is the Government going to get Net Overseas Migration down to 90,000 ? There are no policies in place to achieve that, & the Olympics is just around the corner & there is a big danger that it will blow NOM out still further, probably for the next 3 years (ie not just during the Olympics year itself).

Is the scenario bodgy? Yes, we think so.

Good luck to those of you willing to have a bash at radio phone-ins, Letters to the Editor and to your local MPs, Prime Minister and Minister for Immigration, Mr Ruddock.
What follows is from http://www.abs.gov.au

ABS Media Release
18 August 1999
95/99

AUSTRALIA'S POPULATION REACHES 19 MILLION

Australia's population has reached 19 million. In commenting on the Australian Bureau of Statistics' figure, the Minister for Financial Services and Regulation, The Hon. Joe Hockey, described it as a "significant milestone for the nation".

Minister Hockey said it had taken four years and five months for the population to increase from 18 to 19 million. During that time, natural increase contributed 47% and net overseas migration contributed 53% to population growth.

"The latest ABS population projections suggest that it will take six years to add the next million people to Australia's population, and that growth will continue to slow down as natural increase falls and migration levels remain steady," the Minister said.

"At the turn of the century, on the threshold of nationhood, Australia's population was only four million, but even then the impact of migration was evident, with 23% of the population born overseas, the same proportion as today.

"Since 1949, when Australia's population was eight million, it has taken between four and five years for each successive million people to be added to the population. The relative contribution of natural increase and net overseas migration to each successive million has varied quite considerably over this period."

Minister Hockey said the reality of population change affected Australia almost every moment of the day.

"The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates that every day, on average, the population grows by 558 people - 681 babies are born, 369 people die and 246 migrants are added."

Minister Hockey was speaking at the unveiling of an Australian Bureau of Statistics 'Population Clock'.

SEE GRAPH - 'AUSTRALIA'S POPULATION GROWTH' - at ABS Website on Click here to see graph

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

On 18 August 1999 the resident population of Australia is projected to be 19,000,000

This projection is based on the estimated resident population at December 1998 and assumes growth since then of:

* one birth every 2 minutes and 7 seconds,

* one death every 3 minutes and 54 seconds,

* a net gain of one international migrant every 5 minutes and 50 seconds leading to an overall total population increase of one person every 2 minutes and 35 seconds.

This clock will be held constant on 18 August 1999 in recognition of the important milestone involved.
 
 

AESP Media Release 14 July 1998
 
 

NEW POPULATION PROJECTIONS PROVIDE TOOLS FOR POPULATION POLICY

Population projections released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will allow an informed debate about choices for Australia's population size, according to Australians for an Ecologically Sustainable Population (AESP).

"The Coalition has avoided developing a population policy, in spite of warnings from some of Australia's leading scientists linking population growth to ecological decline", Ms Barton said.

"Developing a national population policy would expose the available choices and the social, economic and environmental costs of implementing those choices", she added.

The choices plotted by ABS range from a population that peaks at just over 20 million and declines by 2051 to around today's population size, to one that would be over 30 million by 2051 and still growing. The former would be AESP's choice, said Ms Barton, because it would put ecological and economic sustainability within Australia's grasp.

Ms Barton highlighted Sydney University economist Professor Frank Stilwell's argument that Australia's true international comparative advantage lies in the very things that our population growth destroys - Australia's unique ecosystems, and the quality of life that they afford residents and visitors.

Ms Barton added that business leaders who called for endless population growth failed to distinguish between growth in the total size of the economy and growth in economic activity per head of population. "As David Mortimer pointed out in his 1997 report 'Going for Growth', commissioned by the Federal Government, to the extent that growth in total GDP is purely the result of population growth, it is illusory", said Ms Barton.

"Electoral support for high levels of immigration stands at just 2 per cent. The Australian people already understand the benefits of halting population growth, and would welcome the transition to an ecologically and economically sustainable society" she concluded

Inquiries : Edwina Barton, (02) 6247 1142 bh/ah Return to where you started

Click here to go immediately to the INDEX

Branches:
 

Victorian Branch, PO Box 1173 Frankston VIC AUSTRALIA 3199 (03) 97835047  Send enquiries and information to.

National Office: (02) 6235 5488 FAX (02) 6235 5499 PO BOX 297 CIVIC SQUARE, CANBERRA 2608.  National Office Street Address:  256 Baroona Rd., Michelago, NSW 2620.  NATIONAL WEB PAGE: www.population.org.au

National E-mail address: aespnat@canberra.teknet.net.au

National Director, Jenny Goldie aespnat@canberra.teknet.net.au
National President: Dr Harry Cohen Harry.Cohen@health.wa.gov.au
 
 

Sustainable Population Australia (SPA) was originally called Australians for an Ecologically Sustainable Population.  It is an ecological group dedicated to preserving species' habitats globally and in Australia from encroachment through human population growth. We regard the degradation of our own species' quality of life through competition for water, space and other natural and social amenities as critical. Concerning these problems we have formulated the six major objectives elaborated at the end of this section under the heading "Aims and Objectives of AESP"

 AESP, now SPA,  was formed in 1988 by people who felt that the matter of population numbers was overlooked, or regarded as too contentious, by many of those who are striving to preserve Australia's heritage. It has held public meetings and conferences in Canberra and elsewhere. The Executive Committee meets in Canberra. Branches in most States promote SPA ideas, study local problems, and recruit new members.  SPA does not hold regular meetings of members, but it issues a quarterly Newsletter that supplies information and comments on relevant material from the media. This provides members with ideas and with facts to rebut the many myths about sustainability and population that one hears in conversation or sees in the press.  SPA issues many press statements. Our members include some from every State and many who are well known in literary, scientific, academic and social spheres.
 
 

  2. To promote awareness that the survival of an ecologically sustainable population depends in the long term on its renewable resource base.

  3. To promote policies that will initially lead to the stabilisation of Australia's population by encouraging near replacement fertility rates and low immigration rates.

  4. To promote urban and rural lifestyles and practices that are in harmony with the realities of the australian environment and its resource base.

  5. To advocate low immigration rates while rejecting any selection of immigrants based on race.

  6. To promote policies that will lead to the stabilisation of global population.
 
 

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Australia should direct more money into foreign aid to combat the conditions that contribute to overpopulation by assisting initiatives for educating and enfranchising women, enhancing children's health, and promoting family planning education and safe, non-coercive family planning methods

 We should lead by example and assist in the development and use of low energy consumption technology and lifestyle

 Take great care when dealing with homeostatic indigenous ecologies

Wherever States have the responsiblity for and power of limiting impact on the bioregions within their borders they should exercise this within the context of national and local population policy.

Any steady percentage growth of consumption, or population, or both, is "exponential" and leads to recurrent doublings of these factors.

The banker's "1-70" rule of thumb states that 1 percent per annum growth (or compound interest) means a doubling of capital every seventy years; 2 percent growth means a doubling every 35 years, and so on.

This must not be allowed to happen.

The impact on a country's resources and environment is most clearly explained by the Ehrlich equation:

or I = PAT, where P = Population size, A= Affluence, which is the average individual consumption, and T = an index of the environmental demand that a Technology imposes to supply goods consumed.

Communities need to limit the size of all three factors: it makes no sense to pretend that only one or two of them are important.

 Today, even those planners sympathetic to the environment cannot avoid imposing further burdens on it in order to satisfy the needs of ever more people.

 We must work on all three fronts:

 (i) to stabilise or, better, reduce our population;
(ii) to change our personal lifestyles to use less energy and finite resources; and
(iii) to adopt less damaging industrial and farming practices.

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Why such a long name?

Is SPA a political group?

We are not a political party and we are not affiliated with any party. We are political in that we try to educate politicians as well as the media and the general public on the population issue in Australia.

Just what is SPA?

We are a non-profit volunteer environment group. Unlike most others, we realise the importance of population growth in the human impact on our natural, rural and urban environments.

Is SPA a local branch of a foreign organisation?

No. We were started in Australia, by Australians and our primary concern is the Australian environment.

Why don't we just call ourselves Zero Population Growth?

We believe that Australia will probably have to do more than just stabilise the population level. We most likely have to reduce it in the long run. People might be confused if we talked of negative growth. It sounds like a contradiction and besides, it may not be needed everywhere. The important thing is to strike the right balance between nature and numbers.

How do we lower the birth rate?

There are plenty of non-coercive things that could be done. Experience in the third world shows three things are vital:

1. Access to and information about contraceptives.

2. The ability of women to decide their own future, including the number of children.

3. High health levels and low death rates of those children. In Australia this means putting money back into family planning clinics. Parenting courses in schools. Better sex education and access to contraceptives. Spending more on children's health and welfare services. Encouraging girls to pursue their education and careers further. Launching a "Two Will Do" campaign, making it clear that large families are not economically necessary or environmentally desirable to the nation.

All sorts of financial discouragements to large families are made by other countries' governments. Hopefully, none of them will be needed if we start on the softer options soon.

Isn't reducing immigration racist?

No. It all depends why and how you do it. Of the more than 170 countries in the U.N. only a handful have a mass immigration policy. Nobody calls that great majority racist because they are clearly overpopulated. We believe Australia has more people consuming more per head than its long term carrying capacity allows and so it too is overpopulated.

Trying to reduce the number of Australians could only be racist if either:

1. There was only one single Australian race (not true for 200 years) or

2. Immigration was cut in a racially selective way instead of across the board - as we advocate. People who may call us racist either haven't listened to us or (for reasons of personal power or profit) don't want anybody else to listen to us.

What about refugees?

There is no need to change the current refugee intake. It is only half the number of people who leave Australia permanently every year. This still leaves room for some immigration (e.g. close family reunion) without a net increase in population.

Isn't conservation more important than population?

This is like asking if your heart is more important than your head. Both are vital to survival. Taking action only on conservation and ignoring population is like mopping up around an overflowing bath without turning the taps off. No matter how hard you work, you just can't win in the long run. AESP sees other environment groups in this light.

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Did you know that there have been many inquiries into Australia's population carrying capacity since the 1900s?

Here is the most recent. DID YOU KNOW?
 
 

1995

In 1995 the population of Australia was 18.1 million and for Victoria 4.5 million.

 Series A. If total fertility rate remains at 1.85 and net migration at 70,000 p.a., then in 2051 Australia will have 26.1 million and Victoria, 5.2 million.

 Series C. If total fertility rate remains at 1.85 but net migration continues at 100,000 p.a., then in 2051 Australia will have 28.3 million and Victoria, 5.8 million.
(This is in fact the projection the current Victorian government is working on, although they only take it up to 2021.)

Series D. If total fertility rate reduces to 1.75 (which seems to be the most respectable demographers consider feasible) and net migration reduces to 70,000 p.a., then in 2051 Australia will have a population of 24.9 million and Victoria, 5.0 million.

 Series I. If total fertility rate remains at 1.85 but migration reduces to nil net, then in 2051 Australia will have a population of 20.1 million and Victoria, 3.8 million.

 Note: These projections are only valid in so far as there are no unexpected changes in fertility, life expectancy and immigration and emigration numbers.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, except for the Series I, which is however based on ABS figures.
 
 

1999

ABS Media Release
18 August
95/99

AUSTRALIA'S POPULATION REACHES 19 MILLION

Australia's population has reached 19 million. In commenting on the Australian Bureau of Statistics' figure, the Minister for Financial Services and Regulation, The Hon. Joe Hockey, described it as a "significant milestone for the nation".

Minister Hockey said it had taken four years and five months for the population to increase from 18 to 19 million. During that time, natural increase contributed 47% and net overseas migration contributed 53% to population growth.

"The latest ABS population projections suggest that it will take six years to add the next million people to Australia's population, and that growth will continue to slow down as natural increase falls and migration levels remain steady," the Minister said.

"At the turn of the century, on the threshold of nationhood, Australia's population was only four million, but even then the impact of migration was evident, with 23% of the population born overseas, the same proportion as today.

"Since 1949, when Australia's population was eight million, it has taken between four and five years for each successive million people to be added to the population. The relative contribution of natural increase and net overseas migration to each successive million has varied quite considerably over this period."

Minister Hockey said the reality of population change affected Australia almost every moment of the day.

"The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates that every day, on average, the population grows by 558 people - 681 babies are born, 369 people die and 246 migrants are added."

Minister Hockey was speaking at the unveiling of an Australian Bureau of Statistics 'Population Clock'.

SEE GRAPH - 'AUSTRALIA'S POPULATION GROWTH' - at ABS Website on Click here to see graph

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

On 18 August 1999 the resident population of Australia is projected to be 19,000,000

This projection is based on the estimated resident population at December 1998 and assumes growth since then of:

* one birth every 2 minutes and 7 seconds,

* one death every 3 minutes and 54 seconds,

* a net gain of one international migrant every 5 minutes and 50 seconds leading to an overall total population increase of one person every 2 minutes and 35 seconds.

This clock will be held constant on 18 August 1999 in recognition of the important milestone involved.

Click here to return to the Index

There is no place on planet Earth which would benefit by having more humans

At any given level of production, consumption and waste generation, the more people there are, the greater is the impact on the environment

Australia's population, now 18.3 million, is growing by 1.2 per annum. If this rate of growth continues our population will double within 58 years

Australia's population would stabilise at about 21 million, by 2030 except for Government intervention

Australia's fertility rate, 1.87, is high by European standards. Spain has achieved a fertility rate of 1.23 and Italy 1.27. Australia could reasonably be expected to have a fertility rate of 1.6.

It would not be either reasonable or logical to ask our people to exercise restraint in their family size, while at the same time pursuing a policy of artificially increasing our numbers via a pro-growth immigration program

It would not be either reasonable or logical to ask our people to exercise restraint in their purchase of consumer goods, while at the same time pursuing a policy of artificially increasing the numbers of consumers in Australia via a pro-growth immigration program

There is a strong humanitarian argument for preserving the environment for the many millions of future generations rather than risking damage to it through over-exploitation by a swollen present-day population

Biological diversity cannot be preserved in any ecosystem where any species continually increases its numbers

Australia's population is not living sustainably within its environment - as demonstrated by forest depletion, soil degradation/erosion/salinisation, plant and animal extinctions, excessive greenhouse emissions, and declining fresh and marine water quality

The report of the Parliamentary Inquiry into Australia's Population 'Carrying Capacity' urges the Australian Government to develop and implement an integrated population policy, and is critical of the 'existing situation where a de facto population policy emerges as a consequence of year by year decisions on immigration taken in an ad hoc fashion

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New  Peter North and Sheila Newman book out soon, called: Privatising Democracy.  About the corporatising of government and the sidelining of science.  Details when available.  Contact: smnaesp@alphalink.com.au

Peter North, Growing for Broke, Tomorrow Press, 2000.  Available from SPA.  Contact: smnaesp@alphalink.com.au
This is a very funny book about the crazy economics of population based economic growth.  Puts politicians and economists in perspective.

Teitelbaum, M.S, & Winter, J., A Question of Numbers:High Immigration, Low Fertility, and the Politics of National Identity, Hill and Wang,(Division of Farrar, Straus, Giroux), New York, 1998. Very readable, clearly and concisely expressed scolarly, but topical work examining political demographics in various countries in Western Europe, Eastern Europe and North America. Further chapters looking at transnational issues: Development, Migration and Fertility; Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Immigrants; Islamic Fundamentalism and the West. Well researched, interesting opinions on issues of our time by two veteran demographic researchers. (See further down this list for an earlier book by the same team.)

New Mark O'Connor book out soon: Boundless Plains?, published by Duffy and Snellgrove, available from SPA. Contact: smnaesp@alphalink.com.au
Mark O'Connor: This Tired Brown Land, Duffy & Snellgrove, 1998
Distributed by Tower Books, $17

This book talks about how the fat cats of the Housing and Construction Industry are driving ordinary Australians before them like a huge flock of geese to market. Introduced by Tim Flannery, the book courageously fulfils its promise to answer the question of 'How Australia's booming population is destroying our environment and why discussion of this has been stifled." The first third is filled with ecological and environmental data on Australia, expressed in highly readable form. There is also quite a lot on immigration quotas, policies etc, which normally would send me to sleep, however Mark manages to make this readable as well as educational too. This is the kind of book you might consider giving to a teenager to help them understand why the population 'debate' has become so fraught. It is enlightening, kind, often funny and hard to put down. Please help sales and publicity by ordering from your local book store and writing reviews for newsletters etc. This kind of honest, unsensational debate requires stimulus.

Doug Cocks, People Policy, Australia's Population Choices, UNSW Press, March 1996, ISBN 0868402478. Dr Doug Cocks is a Senior Principal Research Scientist in the CSIRO Division of Wildlife and Ecology, ACT. He was the chief researcher and writer for the Australian Population 'Carrying Capacity' Report, 1994.

House of Representatives Standing Committee on Long Term Strategies, Australia's Population 'Carrying Capacity', One nation - two ecologies, ,/b, Report by the House of Representatives Standing Committee for Long Term Strategies (Chaired by Labor MLA Barry Jones), December 1994, Canberra, Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra, Cat#2429067 ISBN 0 6 44 35556 5(Available at most university libraries).

Arno Karlen, Plague's Progress, A social history of Man and Disease,Victor Gollancz, London, 1995, 266 pages. ISBN 0 575 06135 9. Rivetting analysis of the history of the demographic impact of diseases carried by man from one community to the next. Includes the factor of typhus in wars, bubonic plague in medieval times, small pox and other diseases on the conquering of the new world, the role of typhus and relapsing fever in reducing the population of Ireland during the Potato Famine, and the evolution of new plagues and organisms in the late 20th Century, inc. 'Mad Cow' disease, HIV, Legionellosis and Ebola. Includes comments on trends to relax public health standards and the historic role of international migration. Very readable and highly researched book.

Richard Leakey and Roger Lewin, The Sixth Extinction, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, London, 1996, ISBN 0 297 81747 7.

Peter Tod, Stop Thieving from Our Children, Problems plus solutions, 1996, published at and available from 536 Jesmond Road Fig Tree Pocket, Brisbane 4069, ISBN 0646288253. A review of major factors in overpopulation, natural resources, aggression, and ethics in the Australian and global setting by a passionately concerned Queensland medical practitioner. Some controversial recommendations in the last third of the book.

Mary E. White, After the Greening, the Browning of Australia, Kangaroo Press, Kenthurst, NSW, Australia 1994 ISBN 086417585 (Paleobotanic history of Gondwanaland to present time, building up to a picture of the terrible land degradation in Australia and calling for the impact of population to be acknowledged. Several books preceding this one and another one due out in 1996.)

E.O. Wilson, The Diversity of Life, Penguin Books, 1992 ISBN ? Very well known complex seminal work on biodiversity including several detailed studies of various real ecosystems, from the soil and its organisms upwards.

Joseph Wayne Smith (Ed), Immigration, Population and Sustainable Environments: The limits to Australia's Growth, (487 pages), Flinders Press, Flinders University of South Australia, 1991. ISBN 0646 049383 This consists of a series of essays by scientists, politicians, economists and environmentalists.

Phillip Drew, The Coast Dwellers, (A radical reappraisal of Australian identity.) Penguin 1994. (198 pages). ISBN 0140242066. "Phillip Drew explores the concept of Australians as a 'veranda people' through our architecture, our art, our literature and our popular media" and comes to the conclusion that overpopulation threatens our lifestyles and identities.

National Population Council, Population Issues & Australia's Future,Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra, 1992. ISBN 0644247746

Herman E. Daly & John Cobb, Jr., For the Common Good, Redirecting the Economy toward community, the environment, and a sustainable future, Beacon Press, Boston, Second edition, 1994. ISBN 0870 47058 Very well known background on the history of economics, including the relationship of economic man to the land and water, problems with modern 'development' and human population.

Robert Heilbroner, The Worldly Philosophers, Penguin, 1991, Sixth Edition, ISBN 0-14-013668-1, 365 pages. Classic study of economic thinkers from Adam Smith through Malthus, to Maynard Kaynes and Joseph Schumpeter. Editorial comment and the introduction and concluding chapters deal in an interesting way with the population problem and the history of growth economics. Almost all the major economists considered the problem of population growth and resources, inc. food, and came to different conclusions largely according to their peronalities. I couldn't put it down.

Ehrlich, Paul R. & Ehrlich, Anne H., The Population Explosion, Simon Schuster, Australia, 1990. ISBN 0731801784.

Mathis Wackernagel & William Rees, illustrated by Phil Testemale, Our Ecological Footprint; Reducing Human Impact on the Earth, The New Catalyst, Bioregional Series, New Society Publishers, 1996. This is a kind of handbook for estimating a community's appropriated carrying capacity.(160 pages). This book devises a formula for the calculation of land areas required for human activities , choosing ethanol as the renewable substitute for fossil fuel and assuming an ethanol productivity per hectare of an optimistic 80 [Gj/ha/yr] on biologically productive land. Note that this method is still being developed. However it has become internationally popular. It used as its point of departure the Bruntland Report, which allocates 12.5 % of landmass to biodiversity. This is of course a ridiculously small amount, but it is just a starting point, which the authors don't intend to maintain. The footprint movement is becoming very international, which is good to see. Footprint groups now exist on email http://www.egroups.com/UserGroupsPage?

Paul Collins, God's Earth, Religion as if matter really mattered, Dove, Harper Collins Publishers, Australia 1995, 280 pages. ISBN 1-86371-388-3. Paul Collins is an Australian Catholic priest, and former religious editor for the ABC. This book explores the history of religious attitudes to the environment and deplores the faint hearted approach of religion to the population problem.

Katharine Betts, The Great Divide, Duffy & Snellgrove, 1999 (email dands@magna.com.au).  This is an updated, revised, rewritten and expanded edition of Katherine Betts' earlier publication, Ideology and Immigration, Australia 1976 to 1987, M.U.P. 1988.  The Great Divide is a seminal work on the psychology/sociology of the growth and immigration lobby by an academic and activist who specialises in the field and who is also one of the editors of the Australian demographic quarterly, People & Place. Of great help in understanding the politics and institutions involved.
    In The Great Divide  Katharine Betts looks at how societies, especially Australian societies nurture immigration as a social obligation, a little like a form of noblesse oblige, even when it appears to be economically and socially very costly.   Why has high immigration persisted despite a good deal of resentment among the Australian people? Building on the theories that ascribe population building to the desire for big local markets, she observes that a bi-partisan agreement to avoid criticising immigration numbers appeared to arise between government and opposition between 1976 and 1981.
    After the demise of the Whitlam government the Labor opposition developed a policy of favoring family reunion, which pleased ethnic groups.  However it continued for a while to criticise the numbers of immigrants the Liberals were bringing in.  Betts suggests that the Liberals would have challenged Labor to show how immigrant relatives did not represent additional numbers. Labor was of course unable to defend its stance.  It wished however to keep its family reunion favoring policy because it was important in appealing to immigrant voters.  Katharine Betts suggests that, because both Liberal and Labor wanted immigration, although for different reasons - which each considered wrong - they agreed to avoid the topic altogether.
    Why wasn't there more criticism of this, she wonders?  Her answer is that it became socially dangerous for intellectuals to criticise immigration because, she theorises, a pro-immigration stance became a badge of membership of a tertiary educated status group which considered itself socially and intellectually enlightened.

Michael S.Teitelbaum & Jay M.Winter, The Fear of Population Decline, Academic Press, Inc., London, 1985. Don't be put off by the date this book was published. It is a highly professional work of critical, comparative and truly predictive demography. "Predictive" not in the sense of guessing the numbers, but in the sense of making intelligent and creative deductions based on historical and comparative data. European but not Eurocentric context. Very clearly and beautifully written. Seems to cover everything and everyone in only 201 pages and probably would not put off a beginner.

F.E.Trainer, Abandon Affluence,Zed Books Ltd., 57 Caledonian Road London N1 9BU,UK, 1985. Suggestions for social and economic restructuring for a stable population, with emphasis on local production, local government and low consumption.

NOVELS

Trevor Hoyle, The Last Gasp, Grafton Books (Collins), London, 1983. This is the best science fiction I have read on the subject of overpopulation and environmental clash. The longer I stay in population activism, the more credible Hoyle's scenario of political reactions to the emerging catastrophe seem. This book is positively baroque in its development of themes, particularly biological evolutionary ones. For instance, one of the adaptations of humans to a succession of disasters is the development of an homunicule race, p.482: "Dan had been wrong. They were not, as he had described them, babies, but homunculi. Tiny stunted dwarf-like beings with pulpy alabaster flesh and blackpinprick eyes like raisins stuck in dough. Obeying an instinct similar to the ant's they blindly followed a trail laid by the one in front, and the one in front of that, and the one in front of that, and the one in front of that. First a few, perhaps five or six, had picked up the scent of Dan and Jo as they struggled back across the hot barren landscape. More of the creatures had joined the march, which soon became a straggling procession, dozens, scores, then hundreds plodding onward across the desert scrub and disappearing into the tunnels like a long jointed white slug burrowing underground ...." The whole thing goes on at a cracking pace right to the end, with a nice thick solid slab of science and technology at its base. Highly recommended!

Colleen McCullough, A Creed for the Third Millennium, Harper Collins, 1986
A fascinating futuristic novel, from a Catholic perspective, about first world overpopulation, a creeping ice-age, and the hunt for a prophet to lead the people into dealing with their population and consumption problems. For those of you who come from big families, the family dynamics may be of added interest.

Colin Macpherson: The Tide Turners, Mopoke Publishing, 1999.  This is a novel within a novel. A guy finds a manuscript in an old boat about a plan to stop global population growth. A plan that may or may not have worked. The book is written in such a way that you wonder if this is really a work of fiction. Creepy. If world fertility rates start falling in the next year or two I will be suspicious. Not a project that AESP would endorse, but it is well within the technical capability of many individuals.   The hero and his group of friends (including a hot pair of twins) abandon a first project of a small ecological farm-based community because, "... even though the farm was a very rewarding and useful experience,... it wasn't going to affect many people beyond ourselves."   The book contains good basic conceptual background on population growth, energy consumption and environmental impact and some accessible genetic technology talk.   It is written for adults but well within the reach of reasonably intelligent teenagers.
$17.95 Australian; $11.70 U.S. (Approx)72.45 FRF (Approx). To order

For more information, click here
 
 

People and Place, Australian Forum for population Studies, (Monash, Swinburn), Centre for Population and Urban Research, Monash University, Clayton, Australia, 3168. Tel.(03) 905 2946. Demographic quarterly presenting key information on migration patterns, the labour market, urban growth, the environment and related topics. Click here to visit this publication!

Native Vegetation Clearance, Habitat Loss and Biodiversity Decline, Biodiversity Series, Paper No.6, Biodiversity Unity, Environment Sports and Territories, 1995. ISBN 064222698 9 (Free copy Tel. (008) 808 772.) Uses satellite photographs in landmark assessment of state of Australia.

Graetz, R.D., Wilson, M.A., & Campbell, S.K., Landcover disturbance over the Australian Continent, a contemporary assessment, Biodiversity Series, Paper No.7, Biodiversity Unit, 1995. ISBN 0642 229058, Free copy Tel. (008) 808772 Uses satellite photographs in groundbreaking assessment of state of Australia.

Note: The Australian Family Planning Association provides great free information packages on demography, contraception etc.

Australian Population Association booklet, Demographic Facts, http://www.gisca.adelaide.edu.au/apa/bettts.html

When we reviewed it the population projections in this booklet were unfortunately not based on the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics projections - but it is hoped that the APA Council will consider doing an update to reflect the newer projections in due course. There has been an impressive effort to keep the language as user-friendly as possible for the lay audience, with a lot of plain English. the The style is colloquial and where technical terms are used they are explained clearly.The sections on ageing, and the explanation of why populations with below-replacement fertility still grow are especially good. The booklet does not take a position on ecological sustainability (it is neutral on sustainable population size), but instead says that the population can't grow forever & looks at the demographic consequences of putting the brakes on by different methods.It has further reading lists for each section, & quite a few graphs & charts. It is fully downloadable with 'Acrobat'.

Terrific for the many, many students of non-demography subjects who are these days doing assignments on population eg those studying Geography, Environmental Management, Biology, & Australian Studies (at secondary school and at uni/TAFE).

If you know AESP members, other environmentalists, journos, teachers or students who you think would find it useful, you may wish to mention it to them.
 
 

Mann, Charles C., "How many is too many?"Pp 47-67 The Atlantic Monthly,February 1993, ISSN 0276-9077, published by The Atlantic Monthly Company, 745 Boylston St., Boston, MA 02116 (617-536-9500)

Kaplan, Robert D., "The Coming Anarchy", Pp44-76, The Atlantic Monthly, February 1994. (Details of publication above).

Connelly, M. and Kennedy, P, "Must it be the rest against the West?", Pp 61-84, The Atlantic Monthly, December 1994.

Homer-Dixon, Thomas F., Boutwell, Jeffrey H., & Rathjens, George W., "Environmental Change and Violent Conflict; Growing scarcities of renewable resources can contribute to social instability and civil strife", Pp 38-45, Scientific American, February 1993.

Abernethy, Virginia, "Optimism and Overpopulation", Pp.84-91, The Atlantic Monthly, December 1994.

Deborah Mackenzie, "Will tomorrow's children starve?", Pp 24-29, Scientific American 3 September 1994. Discussion of logistics and possibilities of future food production and distribution in the light of explosive population growth.

Rajamani Rowley, "Thoroughly modern families', Pp.30-31, Scientific American, 3 September 1994. People in the third world who want contraception but can't get it.

Chesnais, Jean-Claude, "A matter of life and death", Pp 32-34. Scientific American 3 September 1994. Discussion of ways and means of stabilising population and historical trends in Europe and elsewhere.

Nachmani, Amikam, "A commodity in scarcity: The politics of water in the Middle East", Australian Institute of Jewish Affairs Inc Briefing, (4 pages.) No.28 July, 1995, GPO Box 5402CC, Melbourne, Vic. 3001, Australia. Tel. (03)982885770. (An extremely concise and interesting article on looming global water shortages in the light of growing populations with a discussion of possible solutions.)

Freeman, Hugh, "The Human Brain and Political Behaviour", British Journal of Psychiatry, (1991), 159, 19-32., 12 pages. An interesting discussion of, as well as specific psychiatric disabilities thought to have afflicted political leaders, the capacity of the human cerebral cortex to absorb a hugely increased flow of information contrasted with the capacity of the older part of our brains, which deal with ethics, social morality, spirtual awareness etc., to come up with new solutions.

Howard, George S., "On certain blindnesses in Human Beings: Psychology and World Overpopulation", The Counselling Psychologist, Vol. 21 No.4, October 1993 560-581. "The various roles that counseling psychologists might play in advocating reproductive responsibility by humans are delineated.

Mann, Donald, President, Negative Population Growth Inc., A Negative Population Growth - Position Paper - "The Cairo Conference on Population and Development,, Negative Population Growth Inc., 210 The Plaza, P.O. Box 1206, Teaneck, N.J. 07666-1206, Tel. (210) 8373555. Brilliant paper, pulls no punches, reminds us of why we committed ourselves to fighting for population sanity and does not give in to woolly optimism or fudgy figures.

John Maynard Keynes, Essays in Biography, the chapter on Robert Malthus. A 42 page biography of Malthus, who was an unusually engaging personality. It is very interesting, not just for the commentary on Malthus' thesis on population, but for his intellectual association, inc. the economist Gregorio (a life long friend), Jean-Jaques Rousseau, and David Hume. This delightful work is for the Malthus afficionado and the novice.

(This reading list is constantly being added to. We do not necessarily endorse every word of every publication, but offer these titles in the spirit of providing useful information. We welcome comments and suggestions. We would also like to know of any foreign language publications on the issue of sustainable populations.)

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